A Forecast For 2030 (Part 1)
A Forecast For 2030 (Part 1)
The Fall of the United States and The Dawn of a New World Order
My training is originally as an economist, so I feel somewhat qualified to discuss what follows, which verges on conspiracy theory. However, I assume that my readers are already open-minded and able to think critically.
The following article is based on my educated guesswork and piecing together of disparate sources, and is not meant as financial or investing advice. Speak to a qualified expert, don’t listen to a random guy on the internet.
In summary, the following events will transpire by 2030, assuming there is no nuclear war (a huge assumption, I realize, but bear with me).
The U.S. dollar will be dethroned as a global reserve currency, resulting in high inflation in the United States.
The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will develop a new global reserve asset, backed by gold.
Western governments will implement and enforce an Orwellian woke dictatorship.
Artificial intelligence and automation will replace most jobs, leading to economic and political power concentrated in the hands of tradesmen and entrepreneurs.
A (deceptive) rise of ‘conservative’ institutions, like Jordan Peterson’s ARC, to challenge Leftist power.
In Part 1 here, I outline why the U.S. dollar will be dethroned by 2030, leaving a bifurcated world with the West and East growing apart. This could lead to a kinetic war, though I doubt it will be nuclear, for reasons I provide below. The end of the U.S. dollar and the ascendence of Eastern nations is due to the U.S.’s economic, military, and moral decline, as well as the weaponization of the dollar following Russia’s special operation in the Ukraine.
Death in Donetsk
In 2014, the United States staged a violent coup in Ukraine, ousting the democratically-elected government of Viktor Yanukovich, who was friendly with Moscow.
The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, landed in Kiev and openly discussed replacing Yanukovich with Western-friendly puppets. The resulting ‘Revolution of Dignity’ was likely CIA-funded; the new government in Kiev immediately signed an economic agreement with the European Union.
The fresh Ukrainian leaders proceeded to crush all internal opposition, including massacring Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east. Tens of thousands of civilians were killed by neo-Nazi units like the Azov battalion, operating under orders from Kiev. The carnage spilled over the border into Russia, who was watching the unfolding civil war closely.
From 2014 to 2015, Russian and Ukrainian leaders met in Belarus to sign the Minsk Agreements, which stipulated that the Ukrainian province of Donbas — where much of the fighting was concentrated — would be granted autonomy and self-government. A number of other measures were agreed to which would end the bloodshed.
However, Ukraine reneged on the agreement and continued to murder its own people. In 2017, the Ukrainian parliament made moves towards membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a Western-led military alliance that is hostile to Russia. President Donald Trump started selling weapons to Kiev, and in July of 2021, the Ukraine and U.S. hosted a naval exercise in the Black Sea, deliberately provoking Moscow.
Eventually, Russian leader Vladimir Putin had had enough. Not only were the Ukrainians refusing to abide by prior diplomatic agreements, they were also actively arming themselves and preparing to join an anti-Russian alliance.
On February 24, 2022, Russian forces entered Ukraine to carry out a ‘Special Military Operation,’ to de-Nazify the country. The rest is history.
Weaponization of the Dollar
The West’s response to the Russian intervention was to weaponize the U.S. dollar, which forms roughly 70 percent of global trade. Being unable to conduct trade in the U.S. dollar cuts a nation off from the world economy, and abandons it to a fate similar to North Korea’s.
At least, that was the thinking.
Shortly after Russia’s military intervention, $600 billion of its foreign currency reserves were frozen, and Russian banks were banned from the SWIFT international payment system, rendering them unable to accept foreign bank transfers. Russian individuals and businesses — and even the Russian Orthodox Patriarch — were sanctioned in an effort to crush the country’s economy.
However, the net effect of this has been unexpected. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the Russian economy will grow by 0.3 percent in 2023, and by 2.1 percent in 2024, even while the United States contends with bank failures, high inflation, and political malaise. The ruble, Russia’s currency, has regained its strength after an initial dip following Western sanctions.
Even worse for the U.S. is the rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), an alliance alarmed by the weaponization of the U.S. dollar and the precedent it sets. If the West is triggered by a simple Slavic dispute, then it can cut China off for ‘hostilities’ towards Taiwan. If the Americans find India’s Prime Minister Modi to be ‘undemocratic,’ then they can sanction Indian businessmen. The BRICS found the U.S.’s sanctions particularly hypocritcal given America’s invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. It was time to forge a new path, free of American hegemony.
In July of 2022, Putin announced that the BRICS were developing an alternative to the U.S. dollar. This August, the BRICS nations are meeting in South Africa to unveil further plans. The result of this is to be a basket-based reserve currency, backed by commodities like oil and gold, as well as BRICS currencies like yuan and rubles.
Since Putin’s statement, de-dollarization has accelerated. Argentina, Algeria, and Iran have applied to join the BRICS, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, and Egypt have expressed interest in joining. Brazil and China have agreed to settle trade in local currencies, and Saudi Arabia is considering accepting Chinese yuan for its oil. India and Malaysia are using rupees for international trade.
This should particularly worry the United States now that the BRICS’s collective economy exceeds that of the Western G7 nations (The United States, UK, Canada, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan). The dollar confers power upon the United States, who is able to use the dollar’s hegemony to force countries to comply with American whims.
No more. The end of an empire is upon us, and a global monetary reset is inevitable.
Golden BRICS in The Oven
My expectation is that the BRICS’s new reserve currency will be backed by gold — not other commodities like oil, and not fiat currencies like the yuan or ruble.
The reason to use gold is twofold. Firstly, gold has a 5,000-year proven track record as a monetary metal, and all of the BRICS nations know this. Secondly, the BRICS cannot trust each other enough to maintain a basket-based reserve currency, and gold solves this collective action problem.
In 2022, central bank gold purchases reached their highest level on record, driven by countries like Turkey and China. India added 33 tons of gold to its reserves. Data for the Russian central bank are unavailable, but individual Russian investors bought a record 50 tons of gold in 2022.
Gold has five qualities which make it ideal as money.
It is impossible to destroy.
It is impossible to create.
It is malleable.
It is rare.
It has proven its value both temporally and geographically.
The last point is important, since gold has been valued across time and across nations. Until 1971, gold was a bedrock of the international monetary system, and in the 19th Century, most industrialized countries backed their currencies with gold. Throughout history, gold has been used as a form of money.
The BRICS are aware of gold’s value. Russia, China, and South Africa are major gold producers. Indian families hoard 10 percent of the world’s total gold supply in personal vaults. While fiat currencies diminish through inflation, gold maintains its value: 1 ounce of gold could purchase a finely-tailored tunic in Ancient Rome, or a custom suit in 21st Century America. The nations who harness gold’s power attain economic dominance.
The issue, of course, is politics. The BRICS nations haven’t always had rosy relations with each other. China and India have frequent border conflicts. India continues to harbor Chinese political prisoners like the Dalai Lama. The list of tensions between BRICS nations is too long to list here.
However, these won’t matter as long as the countries agree to use gold. The problem with commodities like oil or wheat is that their values fluctuate based on market conditions. On the other hand, using a basket of BRICS currencies requires a delicate political balancing act: South Africa can accuse the BRICS of having too few rands, or too many rubles in such a reserve currency. China can accuse Russia of inflating the value of its rubles. Many problems can ensue.
Simply put, gold solves these problems. It is apolitical, maintains its value, and only requires the BRICS nations to agree to exchange the gold at a fixed exchange rate.
Once this happens, expect the price of gold to skyrocket.
The New Monetary System in 2030
As more nations use the gold-backed BRICS currency for trade, they will dump U.S. dollars, sending them back to America. This will cause high inflation in the U.S. as more dollars chase fewer goods. The result will be a bifurcated monetary system: The West, trading mostly with U.S. dollars, and the East, trading with the BRICS reserve currency.
The West will be characterized by high inflation and a slowing economy. The latter will be amplified by poor political decisions, including the urge to ‘de-carbonize’ through inefficient energy schemes like solar and wind, while taxing productive citizens for using too much carbon. As an increasing number of American dollars are repatriated, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to stem rising inflation — which will cause the prices of homes, stocks, bonds, and other assets to collapse. The U.S. will face stagflation: high inflation and declining economic output.
The Eastern BRICS nations, by contrast, will enjoy stable prices, a strong economy, and prosperous trade relations. These countries contain natural resources, an educated workforce, and good moral values compared to the West.
Why do I think this will all unfold by 2030? Because the Western response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has hastened the BRICS’s actions, and because the West is on an economic, political, demographic, and political decline. This, coupled with the West’s foolish agenda to de-carbonize by 2030, will result in a new economic order.
No Nuclear War
The U.S., by involving itself in Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, has made the Ukraine conflict into a proxy war between NATO and Russia. The West may engage in more proxy wars against the BRICS nations to forestall the dollar’s demise, and there may even be minor skirmishes, but I cannot see a nuclear war emerging, simply because everyone knows it would be suicide.
Mutually-Assured Destruction (MAD) ensures that no nuclear power will use its nukes against another nuclear power, because the enemy would retaliate, resulting in total destruction of civilization. Most people would die, the resulting soil would be contaminated, and survivors would struggle in a dystopian world.
Simply put, nobody wants that.
The GAE Dictatorship
The Global American Empire (GAE), characterized by promotion of homosexuality and other non-traditional lifestyles, will exploit the economic collapse of the West to bring about central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and Know-Your-Customer (KYC) laws. The result will be a woke dictatorship, enforced by technology.
Is this all planned? Is it a controlled implosion? I don’t know. George Soros seems to thinks so (See Twitter link).
https://twitter.com/LeighStewy/status/1643758470791933955
In the next post, I explain how the U.S. and other Western nations will become an Orwellian nightmare, in which people will yearn to die — but won’t be able to.
To find out how, click here.
Note: I am indebted to two people for my ideas in this article. First, Andy Schectman has long predicted the dollar’s demise, followed by the advent of a BRICS global reserve currency. Second, I would like to thank Jim Jatras for coining the term GAE (Global American Empire), which has been useful for academics in describing woke Western imperialism.